Consider the following predictions, made by experts:

☛ “This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us. ” (Western Union internal memo, 1876)

☛ “ We don ’ t like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out. ” (Decca Recording Company rejecting the Beatles in 1962)

☛ “The phonograph. . . is not of any commercial value. ” (Thomas Edison remarking on his own invention to his assistant, Sam Insull, 1880)

☛ “ Sensible and responsible women do not want to vote. ” (Grover Cleveland, 1905)

☛ “ It is an idle dream to imagine that. . . automobiles will take the place of railways in the long -distance movement of. . . passengers.” (American Road Congress, 1913)

☛ “ There is no likelihood man can ever tap the power of the atom. ” (Robert Millikan, Nobel Prize winner in physics, 1920.)

☛ “ The odds are now that the United States will not be able to honor the 1970 manned - lunar-landing date set by Mr. Kennedy.” ( New Scientist, April 30, 1964)

☛ “ The bomb will never go off. I speak as an expert in explosives. ” (Admiral William Leahy, U. S. Atomic Bomb Project, 1943)

☛ “ The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular? ” (David Sarnoff ’ s associates in response to his urgings for investment in the radio in the 1920s)

☛ “ There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home. ” (Ken Olsen, president of Digital Equipment Corporation, 1977)

☛ “ Who the hell wants to hear actors talk? ” (Harry Warner, Warner Brothers Pictures, 1927)

☛ “ I think there is a world market for about five computers.” (Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943)

☛ “ Flight by machines heavier than air is unpractical and insignifi cant, if not utterly impossible. ” (Simon Newcomb, an astronomer of some note, 1902)

☛ “ Man will never reach the moon regardless of all future scientifi c advances. ” (Dr. Lee DeForest, inventor, 1957)

☛ “Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.” (Lord Kelvin, president, Royal Society, 1895)

☛ “ 640K ought to be enough for anybody. ” (Bill Gates, 1981)

Source: Paradigms — The Business of Discovering the Future

By Joel Arthur Barker (Collins, 1993), an excellent book on

The subject of the business of discovering the future.

What would make experts and people with great minds like the ones just quoted make such humorous predictions? The answer can be found in one word: the blinding power of Paradigms.

Break Out of Your Paradigms

Even experts and professionals are sometimes unable to look past their own paradigms. What exactly is a paradigm? It ’ s a set of beliefs, rules, and regulations (written or unwritten) that does two things: (1) it establishes or defi nes boundaries (mental, behavioral, etc.), and (2) it tells you how to think and behave inside the boundaries in order to be successful.

Paradigms determine how people perceive the world. People see best what they believe they are supposed to see. Prevailing paradigms determine that. Also, people see poorly, or not at all, information and data that does not fi t into their paradigms. They are literally unable to see things right before their very eyes.

Here ’ s what you have to know: The future of your business exists just outside the boundaries of your industry ’s prevailing paradigm(s). Free yourself from the mentally enslaving and paralyzing power of prevailing paradigms and you ’ ll see how easy it becomes to come up with amazing discoveries and innovations.

A Paradigm shift Occurs when there is a breakout from an old paradigm into a new set of rules. Therefore, to be able to see the future and make accurate predictions, you must:

☛ Think twice before you say “Impossible.” Remember, advances in technology are making the impossible possible. What seems impossible today is so only in the context of present paradigms.

☛ Look past the prevailing paradigm(s).

☛ Watch the rule breakers: Keep a close eye on professional people messing with the rules, because that is the earliest sign of significant change.

And when the rules change, the whole world can change.

Defi ne an Industry or Market

Okay, so you want to make predictions about the future. The question is, the future of what? The stock market? Internet marketing? Computer games? Which market?

In order to make predictions about the future you have to defi ne your target market. Then know your industry and your market Thoroughly. Accurate predictions mandate that you know your target market inside - out.

Do you know what you need To base your predictions on? Solid facts! Without solid facts your predictions will be nothing more than baseless speculations. Here’ s a simple example for you to see what I mean. Your child is playing in the living room and right there on the table near her is a chocolate bar that she hasn ’ t noticed yet. Now, you know two facts: (1) your child loves sweets, and (2) your child has not yet noticed the chocolate bar. Based on these facts, you can predict with a high level of accuracy and certainty that the millisecond she sees the chocolate bar she’ s going to reach out for it.

The more you study your industry or market, the more solid facts you ’ ll have upon which to base your predictions. Start learning and devouring everything related to your industry/market. Know your industry, and your market, inside - out. The more you study, the more solid facts you ’ ll have upon which to base your predictions.

Go to online bookstores like Amazon. com and comb the resources related to your business, industry, and target market. Subscribe to all online and off - line newsletters and publications related to your industry and market. Comb the Internet, bookmark all the sites related to your industry/market, and make sure you check them periodically. Use the Web information company Alexa ( Www. alexa .com ) to check important web site rankings and to identify related web sites.

Don ’ t worry about not being omniscient in your fi eld. By doing what I ’ m telling you, you will fi nd your intuitive judgment and human creativity will skyrocket and you ’ ll soon be able to make increasingly accurate predictions even with incomplete data.

Know Where the Future is Coming From

It ’ s coming from the present! What ’ s going to happen to you and your business in the near future is determined by what you ’re doing and manufacturing today. The future has its roots in today. If you plant an apple seed today, you ’ ll have an apple tree tomorrow. Well, maybe not tomorrow, but the point is you won ’ t get a peach tree, that ’ s for sure!

If you eat salty food now you ’ re going to be thirsty and you ’ re going to need water in the near future. Most people cannot and do not perceive all the consequences of what they ’ re doing today. Signs of the future are all around us, but it isn ’ t until much later that most of the world realizes their signifi cance.

In order to make accurate predictions about the future, think of the consequences of what we ’ re doing today. Think especially in terms of what problems, diffi culties, and challenges we might face in the near future as a result and consequence of what we ’ re doing today.